| The Met Office says it's going to be a cold winter. Privatisation and years of government neglect could mean that for some it will be worse than that... |
This could be the winter of Blackout Britain
WORKERS, DEC 2005 ISSUE
IF RECENT predictions of the Meteorological Office are correct, Britain could be experiencing unusually low temperatures and higher than average snowfall throughout the coming winter months. The Met Office is so concerned with their predictions that they have sent an official warning to the utility companies.
In recent years, many within the electricity industry have repeatedly warned of winter blackouts which never materialised due to a succession of mild winters. The Met Office, however, with its 65% accuracy rate, must be taken seriously when it issues a warning. This could be the winter when Blackout Britain arrives.
Such a scenario cannot be blamed on the weather: the responsibility falls squarely at the feet of free market capitalism and the European Union. Privatisation of the electricity supply industry in the early 1990s, and the reliance on the market by successive governments including the current administration, have led to the shambles we see today in which Britain has no energy policy, with the consequence that many people could be having a cold, cold winter.
Predictions
Alan Johnson, Trade & Industry Secretary, reported in June that generation levels are sufficient for severe conditions, minus 2 degrees Celsius for 30 days or plus 2 degrees for sixty days. He based his premise on the assumption that we do not experience high levels of plant breakdown and that there is sufficient gas to fill the non-power demand for it, enabling adequate gas fired generation to continue to run.
Johnson's assumptions are flawed on two counts. First, Britain has an ever-ageing fleet of power stations. Both the coal fired and nuclear plants are reaching the end of their working lives. In normal conditions generators are not run at maximum capacity, but in such severe weather conditions there would be a requirement to do so, with the consequence that the ageing plant would be even more susceptible to breakdown. Second, a prolonged cold spell this winter could see demand for gas exceed supply. With a prolonged cold winter, demand for domestic gas will be driven up; leaving gas fired power stations starved of fuel. With generation capacity reduced, large tracts of Britain will be plunged into darkness.
Photo: Workers
The warnings demonstrate the mess the electricity supply industry has got itself into since privatisation. The legacy built up by successive generations has been wasted on lining shareholders' pockets and paying excessive bonuses to chief executives. Meanwhile pension schemes have been plundered to pay for redundancies and decimate the skill base of the industry.
The lack of foresight by the capitalist owners has been compounded by the inactivity of successive administrations, both Tory and Labour, by failing to address the needs of the country by developing an energy policy that provides not only for today but for the future and does not rely on the failed concept of the market.
Even supporters of privatisation have acknowledged that reliance on the market is a flawed concept, hence a proliferation of quangos, designed to regulate the market. Capitalism can and will only react to a situation once it has occurred, being unable to plan for situations and find solutions for future problems. It is all about today and not tomorrow. For example, in the cost cutting exercises directly following privatisation, the majority of training schools designed to produce engineers for the future were closed. Consequently there is now a critical shortage of skilled workers. The Midlands company Central Networks alone requires 600 skilled workers in the industry. Now all of the energy companies are scrabbling around for what has become a scarce resource.
Shareholders
Criteria for building a new power station are not based on the needs of the country but on what return can be expected to line the pockets of shareholders. But when many participants within the sector talk about the needs of the country, the solution they advocate is to bring incentives into the market. This clearly is not the solution – simply throwing resources and money at the market will not create an energy sector that provides for the needs of the country.
For future generations the situation is likely to worsen as the global demand for energy is predicted to increase by 65% by 2030. The current government's ideology, dictated by that of the EU, is to avoid any state planning, but this is exactly what is required if Britain is to overcome the challenges that are being faced now and in the future.
Energy investment and security of supply is the bedrock of any economic policy, and the challenges facing the country are immense. In all, 75% of existing generation plant, both nuclear & coal, will be required to be replaced over the next decade or so or else the base load of electricity generation will disappear. By 2020, 90% of Britain's gas requirements will be from states with unproven political stability, with Russia, Iran and Algeria as the main three, hardly the most reliable of trade partners! The National Grid requires £3 billion worth of investment just up to 2010. Unless we act now then not only today's generation will feel the big chill but the generations of the future.
Interference
The European Union has actively promoted this lack of investment and planning within the industry. Though it has no legal basis for interference in the energy sector, this has not stopped it pushing for an integrated energy market based on free market capitalism with the medium term aim of having the sector centred on the priority objectives of the EU.
Their unambiguously stated intention is to create an internal energy market, based on the borders of the EU and controlled by the EU from Brussels. Consequently, nation states will no longer be able to control and direct a resource that is central to their own economies.
Recent EU directives have been aimed at a greater liberalisation of the sector, investment being directed and controlled by the EU, not nation states. For example, Directive 2003/54/EC lays down rules for the functioning of the electricity sector, access to the market, the criteria for tenders and the operation of supply systems. In other words more of the same medicine – but if the medicine is failing to provide the cure why keep taking it?
Planning
What is really required is a planned approach to Britain's energy needs. We have to have a fuels mix: reliance on gas only increases CO2 emissions and renewables cannot provide a reliable base load. As a nation we need to embrace nuclear energy as the most reliable form to provide for the needs of Britain. There are concerns with this technology but it is the only energy source that we have at our disposal that produces virtually no greenhouse gas emissions. We also need to put resources into developing clean coal technologies, critical boiler and stack gas treatment, to name but a few.
We need to put in place a programme that trains the engineers of today and tomorrow. More importantly we need to take control of our own destiny by retaining decision-making in this country, for the needs of this country, by the workers of this country.
